Modeling Hydrological Responses to Land Use Change in Sejnane Watershed, Northern Tunisia

Land use change is a crucial driving factor in hydrological processes. Understanding its long-term dynamics essential for sustainable water resources management. This study sought to quantify and analyze land between 1985 2021 impacts on the hydrology of Sejnane watershed, northern Tunisia. Remote sensing SWAT model using SUFI-2 algorithm identify most sensitive parameters were used achieve this objective. maps developed 1985, 2001 2021. For last 37 years, watershed experienced slight decrease forest, scrubland forage crops, significant reduction grassland, conspicuous expansion olive trees vegetable crops. Given scarcity observed discharge data, was calibrated period 1997–2010 validated 2011–2019. Model performance good both calibration (NSE = 0.78, PBIAS −6.6 R2 0.85) validation 0.70, −29.2 0.81). Changes strongly affected balance components. Surface runoff percolation influenced, showing an increase by 15.5% 13.8%, respectively. The results revealed that construction dam, extension irrigated perimeters tree plantations major contributors changes hydrology.